This week, the spot price of domestic natural rubber standard rubber showed a fluctuating rise. The average price of the natural rubber market remained at around 9,380 yuan/ton on Monday, and was raised to 9,600 yuan/ton on the weekend, with an overall increase of 2.34%. This week, natural rubber merchants have been relatively active in their shipments. The overall market atmosphere of natural rubber is relatively good, and the transaction situation is relatively ideal. The transaction atmosphere has an upward trend compared with last week.
​​
Analysis of the reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices
​​
The reasons for the rise in domestic natural rubber prices are analyzed as follows:
​​
1. Macroscopically, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said that the existing quantitative easing (QE) program will be extended for seven months until March 2017, and the monthly asset purchases will remain unchanged at 60 billion euros. The easing degree of the new policy was obviously less than expected, the euro rose in a straight line, and the exchange rate against the US dollar hit a new high since early November; domestically, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose slightly to a four-month high in October, driven by new export orders. The index returned to above 50, and the new orders index and output index both hit four-month highs, indicating that the slowdown in the manufacturing industry has slowed down as the growth stabilization policy has taken effect. At present, the price of natural rubber is supported by rising factors, and the fundamentals of natural rubber have risen slightly.
​​
2. In terms of market, the state-owned whole milk of Yunnan in Shanghai area was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Hainan state-owned whole milk was about 9,400 yuan/ton in 2013, up 100 yuan/ton; Milk is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the private latex price in Yunnan in 2014 is about 9,400 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton.
​​
3. In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 450 tons compared with last week. Natural rubber futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were reported at 121,540 tons. Among them, Shanghai decreased by 30, Shandong decreased by 20, Yunnan increased by 100, Hainan decreased by 350, and Tianjin decreased by 150.
​​
Fourth, in terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic all-steel tires this week was 62.88%, down 0.80% from last week; the operating rate of domestic tire companies' semi-steel tires was 67.54%, down 0.31% from last week. The market demand for all-steel tires is insufficient, and the start of construction has remained basically stable. Recently, orders for semi-steel tires have increased, and some manufacturers have increased their start-up. However, from a year-on-year perspective, the current operating rate is still lower than the same period last year. According to the practice of previous years, after entering December, the operating rate of tire enterprises will decrease rapidly, reaching the lowest level in the Lunar New Year.
​​
市场前景预测: 本网站对初步预测进行分析，维持对沪指市场之间波动的判断。总体来看，美联储12月加息预期重新增强，加大了市场风险。尽管11月国内产区已逐渐进入减产期，但东南亚产胶国仍处于高产季节，因此国内减产导致的减产难以使全球总量发生明显变化。然而，青岛自贸区的库存仍在上升。随着后期到港量的增加，港口库存趋于上升。同时，交易所库存有增无减，供应压力仍然较大。此外，终端重卡销售低迷的局面仍未改变，轮胎行业面临内需不足、外需受阻的局面。在供需基本面利空的环境下，沪交市场的压力还是比较大的。综合来看，沪指短期或维持震荡盘整格局。